Musings By Joschik Christian obsesses over collectibles, antiques and toys more than the average person, but (he believes) in a productive way. Documenting collectibles has been a passion since working on a book about his favorite childhood toys from Timpo 41 years ago. He is a co-founder of hobbyDB, industry partner at Global Toy Expert and the Chair of the Pop Culture Hall of Fame and the Model Car Hall of Fame.
As collectors ourselves, we’ve been very interested when it comes to all of the news surrounding America and its new tariffs. Without a doubt we know that many of the collectible companies that we work with and document will be impacted. Here’s a quick breakdown on what we think is to come.
Most modern collectibles (95%) will be made in the countries most impacted –
Tariffs between 24% in Malaysia (Hot Wheels) to 54% for China (soo soo many and note that this number includes the two earlier announced 10% hikes that all cumulative)
Here are the first two collectible companies that have already been hit…
Superplastic announced it is closing not even trying
ToyOtter cancels its current Longbox Heroes Collection Kickstarter
I suspect we will see more of this. Remember that many of these projects get ordered 6-12 months in advance and many times need to be prepaid. All of those, regardless if they are already on a container ship or not yet produced, will become significantly more than just the new tariffs. Companies need to make a reasonable contribution margin as a percentage on their sales, so retail prices might increase by up to 75%. And I think all our members know that these cannot be made anywhere close to the current cost here in the US (I think we lost price competitiveness in the 1980s, which was probably good as nobody could have survived on the salaries that would have had to be paid to be still competitive).
Further, I think we will see a move away from new products to the secondhand market, the same way we saw an increase in the secondary car markets during the Pandemic, see below Manheim‘s second-hand car sales and the impact when the WHO declared the pandemic over:
So if you are a collector – now is the time to hit the hobbyDB market before these collectibles also double! And if you are a retailer of collectibles you might want to start buying collections (we have a product coming for that, see my post from yesterday). Who knows, maybe some brands will take up the baton and start trading in their past products?
NOTE: We love to hear your comments but will remove political ones, we want to keep hobbyDB a safe environment regardless of your political views. Let’s talk about what the tariffs will do to the hobby and not the why or why not tariffs make sense.
Here another Kickstarter project that died (and that I had looked forward to).
… and here another tidbit seemingly confirming my secondary marketplace theory, no tariffs on vintage cars.
Now the $800 de minimis provision that allowed to send anything to an American consumer is gone as well (I knew of at least 2 collectible businesses that looked into using that (store items say in Shenzen and drop-ship them to US buyers).
I believe you are correct about the price of older pieces, but I also believe there is going to be less money floating around for the average collector, so less purchases.
There is so much financial uncertainty right now, that while there could be a lot of items for sale, there will be a whole lot less buyers
Tariffs are a regressive tax so of course most consumers will have less money. Not sure how it affect how I shop since I only collect 2 lines.
I collect premium 1/64 but will buy less if they double (most of them are made in China) and I might start looking more at secondhard marketplaces as a result (there are tons of nice models I never got in the first place!).
McFarlane just increased prices last week and that was before the additional 34% tariffs on China.
Some good news – https://icv2.com/articles/news/view/59267/tariffs-will-not-apply-books-comics-printed-asia
Saw this and some other dealers doing the same.
Since 2019, I have been a small dealer for scale model cars (TOYCARGEEK.COM). It is just me and a part time helper. I don’t do this as a hobby, this is my livelihood. Here is the impact that the tariffs have had on me so far; I shudder to think what kind of money the larger dealers are losing:
$1,440 paid out of pocket for tariffs on an order that was delivered when the tariffs were still 20%.
$5,448 refunded to my customers who placed pre-orders, since I can no longer afford to import the items that I was taking pre-orders for.
$21,729 worth of pre-orders with my biggest supplier in China had to be cancelled, and all of the profit I would have made on those orders is lost.
$1,000 extra paid for inventory tax for 2024 because I had to stock up on items that I knew were going to be subject to tariffs. Normally, you want to reduce your inventory at year end to lessen your inventory tax burden. If I hadn’t stocked up, I would eventually run out of things to sell. I also deal in used items from estate sales and consignment sales, so that diversification will help me weather the storm for a while. However, not being able to obtain new releases will significantly impact my sales.
Not to mention all the extra work and stress that this completely unnecessary fiasco has generated. I always assumed that if my small business failed, it would be my own fault. I never dreamed that I would be driven out of business by my own government stabbing me in the back.
Dave is a great supporter of hobbyDB and also a volunteer and shareholder. We highly recommended to check out his online store at http://www.toycargeek.com.
Being in New Zealand and have collected many toys from overseas before the pandemic and also when couriers increased their prices. I am currently in a unique position to cater for local collectors who will now look to collect used toys in country rather than imported from overseas. As for America… well, not my concern. Its hitting my investments in my retirement fund that normally has good growth. But now its taken a dip. Its like investing into a bottomless pit.
It’s going to impact us here in Europe, too. For example, the Round2 Models we receive are shipped from the USA, despite they are made in China. So Round2 will have to pay the tariffs, which they will then factor in when they sell their products on to us. So unless the European importers can negotiate a deal to be supplied directly from China, we will see a significant price hike.
That is almost triple!
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